Following three unsuccessful presidential campaigns, Muhammadu Buhari finally had a breakthrough last year. It had a lot to do with the support of the acclaimed South-West political lord, Bola Ahmed Tinubu. One would think Tinubu’s “wind of change” would sweep away any opposing force. But, that’s not quite the case. Recent events suggest that Tinubu’s influence on Nigerian politics, especially in the South-West, is waning.
On Saturday, the much anticipated APC gubernatorial primary election in Ondo state took place. The election saw 24 candidates jostle for the All Progressives Congress’s sole ticket in the upcoming November 26 gubernatorial poll. The party ended up electing Rotimi Akeredolu. He amassed 669 votes; the runner-up, Olusegun Abraham, got 635. Other candidates who managed a relatively good performance were Olusola Oke (576), Robert Boroffice (471) and Tayo Alasoadura. None of the others got up to 100 votes.
Rotimi Akeredolu came to political limelight about four years ago, when he was controversially handed the APC gubernatorial ticket. He had been in the party for just over a year before Tinubu handpicked and anointed him as the party’s flag bearer, ahead of more popular aspirants. APC’s eventual poor outing in the 2012 Ondo governorship elections may have forced Tinubu to withdraw his support for Akeredolu. This time, he backed another unpopular aspirant – Olusegun Abraham.
Bola Ahmed Tinubu, alias Jagaban, is a 64-year old Lagos politician. He made his first major political appearance in 1993, shortly before military seized power. He represented Lagos West constituency as a senator. After Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, he became governor of Lagos State, a position he held for 8 years. Tinubu, who is now the National Leader of the APC, has been presented by his party members as the most popular and influential politician in the South-West region of the country. Almost all the state governors his party has produced so far in the region were endorsed by him.
The primary election has come and gone. Olusegun Abraham has congratulated Rotimi Akeredolu; he probably will not contest the result. However, it is telling that Akeredolu got the majority of the votes from 2740 delegates, and he did it despite Tinubu’s support of another candidate.
In a build up to the primary election, some crises rocked the Ondo state chapter of the APC. One of the outcomes was the suspension of the state chairman, Isaac Kekemeke. Furthermore, many party members in the state protested the imposition of Olusegun Abraham by Bola Tinubu. To quash any doubts of Tinubu’s hand in his sudden rise to prominence, Abraham confirmed on a local radio programme that Jagaban wanted him as the party’s flag bearer in the next election. In the same vein, embattled Kekemeke said those fighting him were doing so because they were afraid to fight Tinubu. In the end, the will of the state’s party members prevailed over Tinubu’s endorsement.
Right now, it is not clear whether or not Tinubu will shift support before Ondo state gubernatorial election. It’s safe to say he did not bargain for the shock that came with Saturday’s primary election. Could it be that Tinubu’s political grip on the South West is weakening?
The lion’s political relevance is not as strong as it was at the beginning of Buhari’s tenure. No doubt, his influence played a vital part in the president’s election. However, since then, things haven’t gone as well as he would have hoped. For example, his plan to get Femi Gbajabiamila elected as Speaker of the House of Representative flopped.
More recently, the altercation between Dino Melaye and Tinubu’s wife, Oluremi Tinubu, could be proof that he is no longer as revered as he once was. Melaye told Tinubu that he had no input in his rise to fame and he lacks the power to pull him down, despite Tinubu’s threat.
It may take some more time to know how much Tinubu’s influence has depreciated. However, in the meantime, the 2016 Ondo governorship election could be another litmus test and opportunity for Tinubu to test his popularity and relevance, not only within his political party but among the citizens of Ondo state. Until then, his political hold and assertion in the South West remain in doubt.
