On July 26, soldiers in Niger removed the democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum from power hours after members of the presidential guard detained the politician at his official residence. In a swift move, the military junta dissolved the constitution, suspended all governing institutions, and sealed the nation’s border.
While coups are not unfamiliar in the African context and trace their roots back to the post-independence era, the region has witnessed a shift over the years towards embracing democracy—a system that relies less on force and respects both leadership and citizens’ rights. Nonetheless, in recent times, the West and Central African region has experienced an unfortunate upsurge in coup attempts, totalling nine, five of which have succeeded between 2020 and the present. Sadly, this trend comes at a significant cost to the affected countries. Last week, we discussed the repercussions of these coups on African economies.
Niger has faced the imposition of sanctions by various countries and organizations, including the United Nations, the African Union, and ECOWAS. These measures are expected to have substantial economic repercussions in one way or another. For instance, ECOWAS has suspended all commercial transactions with Niger, frozen Niger’s state assets in the regional central bank, frozen assets of the state and state enterprises in commercial banks, and suspended all financial assistance with regional development banks. It does not end there. Many countries especially the wealthier ones have withdrawn aid from Niger.
Niger is the world’s seventh-biggest producer of uranium, the radioactive metal widely used for nuclear energy and treating cancer. But it is also one of the world’s poorest countries, receiving close to $2 billion a year in development assistance.
The European Union, one of Niger’s biggest contributors, has suspended its financial support and cooperation on security with Niger with immediate effect. The EU allocated 503 million euros ($554 million) from its budget to improve governance, education and sustainable growth in Niger over 2021-2024, according to its website.
Similarly, the United States, a major donor of humanitarian and security aid, has warned that the military takeover in Niger could lead to the suspension of all cooperation. So far in fiscal 2023, it has provided nearly $138 million in humanitarian assistance.
Despite these support withdrawals, the junta appears resolute in its stance. Junta-ruled Mali and Burkina Faso have also cautioned that any military intervention in Niger would be interpreted as a direct “declaration of war” against them.
Currently, the security situation across the broader West Africa region remains uncertain and could potentially deteriorate further if the political crisis in Niger remains unresolved. Notably, amidst all of these developments, attention is on Nigeria, which occupies a central role in these events and is positioned to share in the brunt of the instability. And this is attributed to several factors.
Nigeria plays a leading role in the ECOWAS in numerous ways. First, the Nigerian president, Bola Ahmed Tinubu recently emerged as the new chairman of the bloc. Also, member states hold Nigeria in high regard due to its economic strength, diplomatic engagement, and stability, positioning it as a guiding force in the region. Dubbed the “Giant of Africa”, Nigeria has historically played a significant role in peacekeeping missions and mediation of conflicts in neighbouring countries which have earned it respect among ECOWAS nations.
In response to the events in Niger, ECOWAS issued an ultimatum to the military junta that ousted President Mohamed Bazoum, giving them one week to reinstate him or potentially face the use of force. If this scenario unfolds, Nigeria would find itself at the forefront due to the aforementioned reasons, and this presents a significant threat to the country.
Let us begin with the likely deployment of ECOMOG into Niger, the multilateral armed force established by the ECOWAS. Importantly. Nigeria has one of the most formidable and well-equipped militaries in the region. This military strength allows Nigeria to contribute to regional security efforts and peacekeeping missions. However, it’s essential to recognize that deploying soldiers, ensuring their well-being, and facilitating their logistical movements all come with associated expenses.
Asides from this, a crackdown in Niger exposes Nigeria to the risk of increased arms proliferation and the potential influx of refugees. It’s important to highlight that Nigeria is currently contending with significant security challenges, particularly concentrated along its northern border with Niger. Nigeria shares a 1,609km (1,000-mile) border with Niger across states including Bornu, Yobe, Jigawa, Zamfara, Katsina, Sokoto and Kebbi states. This is the longest border Nigeria shares with any country.
For over a decade, the northern region has been negatively impacted by a multitude of challenges, including Boko Haram, farmers-herders clash, and bandit activities. For example, upwards of a million individuals have been uprooted from their residences in Nigeria’s northwest and northcentral zones, while an additional two million have faced displacement in the Northeastern part of the country. Should the turmoil in Niger persist, it could drive people to leave their homes in search of safety in neighbouring nations, possibly triggering a refugee crisis. This mass displacement could strain host communities, sparking competition for resources and social conflicts, further destabilizing the already tense northern region of the country.
The imminent emergence of mini-regional crises would further boost violent extremism, and worsen humanitarian crises in Nigeria. It is evident that Nigeria lacks the economic capacity and resilience to manage such destabilizing events. The nation already grapples with substantial debt, elevated inflation rates, and persistent unemployment, amidst other indicators of economic downturn.
Lastly, at present, major cities in Niger are facing rolling blackouts following last week’s coup in the West African country. The power shortages are a result of Nigeria cutting supplies to Niger’s electricity company Nigelec. Niger is considerably reliant on Nigeria as its primary source of electricity. 70% of Niger’s electricity supply is hinged on Abuja’s support.
But there is also a flip side. Kainji Dam from where Nigeria gets the majority of its hydropower has its turbine propelled by the water flowing from the Niger River. It has raised concerns of how Nigeria would survive if Niger under the military decides to do the unthinkable – damming the river from their end.
In July 2020, the Nigerian presidency revealed that the country had entered into electricity power export agreements with certain neighbouring nations, Niger among them. These collaborative agreements were established on the condition that these countries, including Niger, would be supplied electricity in return for an assurance that the upstream neighbour would not impede the water flow to Nigeria’s hydroelectric dams located in Jebba and Kainji, within Niger State.
However, Niger has already taken a step in this direction with the Kandadji Dam, situated over 400 km upstream from the Nigerian border. This would make Niger less reliant on electricity imports from Nigeria while also enhancing the country’s socio-economic landscape. However, financial challenges have hindered the progress of dam completion. If this construction project reaches a successful conclusion, Nigeria could potentially experience a substantial setback of up to 760MW in electricity generation capacity, coupled with the significant loss of a crucial water resource necessary for agricultural activities. Embarking on that path without first establishing alternative sustainable and reliable sources of energy would have negative consequences for Nigeria.
