The world is waiting on tenterhooks for the outcome of the much-publicised Glencore-Xstrata merger, with a final decision expected by the Xstrata board by Wednesday at the latest, following a final meeting on Friday.

Glencore CEO Ivan Glasenberg last week publically declared a final offer of $35 billion, raising the bid to 3.05 Glencore shares per Xstrata share owned – up from the initial bid of 2.8 shares.  However, the new offer sees a condition attached to the merger deal: fellow South African Mick Davis must hand over the role of CEO of the merged entity to Glasenberg; leaving Glasenberg at the helm of the newly formed company within 6 months of the deal going through.

In order for the merger to go ahead, Glencore needs a 75 percent vote in favour of the proposed transaction.  Hence, Glasenberg is currently focused on negotiating terms favourable to each of the smaller stake-holders in a final attempt to muster the support necessary to push the deal through.

At Friday’s meeting, Glasenberg called together independent and non-executive directors in an attempt to smooth out any last-minute tensions.  He assured Xstrata senior management that they are not in danger of losing their positions should the merger go ahead, Glasenberg intending to place the current Xstrata management at the forefront of the new entity.

While current official statements indicate that no decision was taken at Friday’s meeting as to the merger, it has been widely speculated that the board – chaired by Sir John Bond – is largely ready to announce a positive decision in response to last week’s revised bid.

The biggest unknown quantity in the equation is second-largest Xstrata stake-holder, Qatar Holding.  The Middle-Eastern entity owns a 12 per cent stake in the company, and has throughout the process blocked negotiations by maintaining a refusal to accept any offer less than 3.2 Glencore shares per Xstrata share held.  Qatar Holding has maintained a silence over the recent weeks, with parties and commentators at a loss as to what the stake-holder will decide in a final vote.

Other smaller stake-holders have been more verbose as the impending vote approaches.  Tenth largest stake-holder, Standard Life, has indicated it is entirely in support of the new bid, and would be pushing the board to agree.  Conversely, investor Knight Vinke has declared that it would not be supporting the bid, and stated that: “We continue to believe firmly that – given the more than threefold increase in earnings which some analysts believe will be generated by the current development pipeline at Xstrata over the next two years – the value of Xstrata is substantially more than Glencore is proposing.”